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A rules-based, data-driven investment model designed to help everyday people navigate volatile markets with less anxiety, greater confidence, and significantly higher long-term returns.

The AnyMarket Algorithm is a rules-based investment model that has outperformed the S&P 500 since 2000 by rotating between equities and safe haven assets based on daily market signals.

Since January 1, 2000

S&P 500
CAGR Since 2000
5.96%
$1,000 → Today
$4,514.00
Years in the Red
8 out of 26
AnyMarket Algorithm
CAGR Since 2000
18.20%
$1,000 → Today
$78,981.83
Years in the Red
1 out of 26
From January 1, 2000 to March 14, 2026

The AnyMarket Algorithm Difference

Conventional investing wisdom says to buy a broadly diversified index fund and hold it forever. Over a long enough time horizon, this strategy has historically been quite successful, but that doesn’t make it easy (or necessarily wise) to follow in every market environment.

Between sharp pullbacks, multi-year bear markets, and sudden shocks, even patient investors face moments that test their resolve. And when those moments arrive, the difference between staying in and stepping back matters more than any single investment decision.

Since 2000, the S&P 500 has returned about 5.96% per year on average, but that number obscures some brutal stretches. The Dot-Com crash wiped out nearly half the market’s value. The Great Recession cut it nearly in half again just eight years later. It’s true that if you had bought in at the very height of the Dot-Com Bubble, you would still be in the green today, but you would have waited over a decade just to break even, while the market’s best years were compounding without you.

The AnyMarket Algorithm was built around a simple observation: the market’s long-term gains and its worst losses are not randomly distributed. There are periods when conditions clearly favor staying invested, and periods when the risks of staying in begin to outweigh the benefits of riding it out.

Rather than reacting to headlines or gut instinct, the model evaluates a set of objective signals each day. It looks at momentum, trend, volatility, and price behavior, then determines whether conditions favor equities or a more defensive posture. It is not trying to predict the future. It is applying a consistent framework, the same way, every day, regardless of what the news is saying.

A Simple Two-Asset Rotation

The model operates with a deliberately simple structure. Each day, it holds one of two positions: equities or safe haven assets.

When conditions look favorable, the model stays in equities. When warning signs emerge, it steps to the sidelines. See the Methodology page for a full explanation of how the signals work.

Following these signals since 2000, the AnyMarket Algorithm has produced an annualized return of 18.2%, more than tripling the S&P 500 over the same period.

A $1,000 investment in the S&P 500 at the start of 2000 would be worth $4,514.00 today. The same $1,000 following the AnyMarket Algorithm would have grown to $78,981.83.

Precision Market Timing

The model’s buy and sell signals have historically landed at meaningful inflection points. Not perfectly, but with a consistency that is hard to dismiss.

Many sell signals have fired when equity markets were extended or just beginning to weaken. Many buy signals have come just as markets were stabilizing after major declines, in some cases within a day or two of the market’s lowest point in a given pullback.

Every trade the model has made since 2000 is shown below.

Fully Invested When It Matters Most

A buy-and-hold strategy captures every gain and every loss. The AnyMarket Algorithm tries to do the former without the latter.

Since January 1, 2000, the model has been in equities 74.26% of the time and in safe haven assets 25.74% of the time. The timing of those shifts tells a pretty compelling story:

The model has not been right every time. But it has consistently been in the market on the good days and out on the bad ones. Compounded over decades, that makes an enormous difference.

Safe Havens
Percent of Time in Safe Havens
25.74%
Average Percent Change While in Safe Havens
-0.139%
Equities
Percent of Time in Equities
74.26%
Average Percent Change While in Equities
+0.089%

The Compounding Gap

Small annual differences become large ones over time. Outperforming by 12.24% per year may not feel significant in any single year, but that gap compounds relentlessly.

What makes it more pronounced here is that the model’s edge is not symmetrical. In years when it trails the market, it tends to do so by a modest amount. In years when it leads, particularly during downturns, the gap can be substantial.

The reason is simple: money not lost in a crash doesn’t need to recover. It keeps compounding from the higher base.

A Consistent Track Record

Major corrections do lasting damage to long-term portfolios not just because of the losses themselves, but because of the recovery time they steal.

The AnyMarket Algorithm has historically done its best work during the market’s worst moments. Across 26 full calendar years, the model finished in the red just once. That was in 2000, and it still outperformed the S&P 500 by 6.41% that year. Every year since has been positive.

No model can promise this will continue. But 25 consecutive years of gains, spanning three major crashes, is a meaningful track record.

Annual Performance

Since January 1, 2000, the AnyMarket Algorithm has:

The chart below lets you zero in on each year individually. The crash years are worth examining closely: 2000 through 2002, 2008, and 2020. The model routinely beats the market in good years too, but significant market downturns are where the AnyMarket Algorithm really shines.

Why This Exists

This project started as a personal tool. Something built to manage my own money more thoughtfully, in the background, while I put my attention toward things that matter more to me.

I’m not a finance professional. I work in data and community development. But I was frustrated by something a lot of people feel: the gap between the disciplined, systematic approach that institutional investors use and the “just hold forever and don’t look at it” advice given to everyone else. That asymmetry always struck me as unfair.

So I built something. The bar was low at first: beat the market by a point or two, reduce investment anxiety, that’s a win. After months of refinement, the results surprised me. Eventually they were too good not to share.

This site isn’t financial advice. It isn’t a product with a team behind it. It’s one person’s research, shared openly, for anyone who wants to use it to inform their own thinking.

A Few Important Notes

  1. Data is delayed by 30 days. Performance figures on this site reflect data through approximately 30 days ago, allowing time to verify accuracy before publishing. Subscribers receive same-day alerts straight to their inboxes when the model changes allocation. See the Support page for details.

  2. Dividends are excluded. Performance figures do not include dividends, which means the reported returns slightly understate the true historical performance of both the S&P 500 and the AnyMarket Algorithm.

  3. Safe haven returns use a 4% assumption. When the model is in defensive assets, returns are modeled at a flat 4% annual rate. This is a reasonable long-run approximation for short-term Treasuries and similar instruments.

  4. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See the full disclaimer for more detail.

AnyMarket Algorithm
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